Like some Clock of the Long Now, ticking once every few decades to remind us of the brevity and fragility of our earthly existence, the Official for National Statistics releases Census data.

Today saw another emission, giving, among other things, more detail about religious affiliation in England and Wales (and please note, it is affiliation; not belief, not behaviour, not churchgoing, etc. etc.) The figures don’t seriously change the plot, hinted at in various polls over the years and revealed in last year’s major publication, but they do lift the veil on some sub-plots that may, in time, revise the narrative.

The Christian group, as well as declining most precipitously over the last decade, is also the one with the oldest overall age profile and the highest median age (45). By contrast, Muslims had the youngest age profile (median age 25), followed by the non-religion group.

The ONS data allow further interrogation by age group. As one would expect, older age groups are notably more Christian. Of those aged 60-79, for example, there are 7.7 million Christians, 1.1 million non-religious, and 137,000 Muslims. But then take the 15-24 year age group (not one famed for its overt religiosity or loyalty to institutional Christianity). In 2011, 3.5 million of these called themselves Christian, compared with 2.6 million who said they were of no religion, and 460,000 who said they were Muslim. Or, the 0-9 year group, which is a reasonable cipher for the religious affiliation of new parents. In 2011, 3.2 million of these were Christian, compared with 2.1 million who were of no religion, and 603,000 who were Muslim.

Prediction is a mug’s game, even in demography which is a positive statistical tortoise compared with most other forecasting areas (anyone care to predict GDP in the last full quarter before the next general election?) Nevertheless, what these affiliation data seem to suggest is that no one non/religious group owns the future. The days of universal religious affiliation, within England and Wales at least, are gone. They are not, however, being replaced with anything similarly all-pervading. Christendom is not giving way to Eurabia or secutopia. We are just going to have to learn to live with one another.

Nick Spencer is Research Director at Theos

Image from flickr.com by PaulSh under the Creative Commons Licence.